Stocks! anyone play with them?

HildaCorners

The trick with index (or any) funds is to pick no load, low management fee funds. You won't beat the market but you won't do worse than the market, either.

Index funds are great for people who want to spend a couple hours once to select investments, then move on to do things they consider more interesting. If you love following stocks and analyzing them, by all means use a more active system — but only with money you can afford to lose, not next month's mortgage money.

And "buy and hold" is a bunch of shit, too...how did that work out for people who needed their money in the bear market?

If you think you'll need the money, it should never be in stocks in the first place.

See what I wrote above ... you shouldn't play the market (and it is play, not a way to save) until you're debt free, earn enough to easily pay your bills, and have a hefty emergency savings account. If all those bases are covered, then you can hold through a short bear market, and probably through most long ones.

Retirement money is different ... it's already in a "hold" position.

Again, if stocks and investing is your hobby or profession, the rules are different that for someone with some extra money to invest who isn't interested.

nyobna

If you're willing to do a bit of work and have the proper emotional makeup, I really like this strategy from 1887 by Henry Clews who was like Warren Buffet before Warren Buffet:
http://www.dailyspeculations.com/Letter/cane.htm

There is usually 1 or 2 good sell offs in a year and if you have the emotional fortitude then I think you buy High Quality stocks or low-cost index ETF during these panics.

Otherwise CANSLIM can make you a return as well but it also requires a good bit of work.

SunDance

I would be careful of index funds right now, or anything really.  They may be way over valued. I think I would wait awhile and lump sum in if they crash or correct. With Greece, oil, Russia, and who knows what else, I would be careful.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/lets-closer-look-ginormous-stock-172500723.html

Having said that, I did put most of my long term cash into a long treasury bond index fund in 11/2013 (TLT).  It simply kicked ass in 2014 and is doing it again in 2015. I am letting this ride. It may have made its run, but I do not think so. It pays a great monthly dividend. Check it out. A intermediate treasury index may be better if your putting in cash now. No way is the Fed going to raise interest rates with deflation in Europe. And also check out the ten year bond for Spain, Italy, Germany, etc. and compare to our 10 year bond. Ours is a great deal, expect rich Europeans and everybody else to flock to this safe haven.

If the market does crash or corrects, afterwards, I am selling the TLT and putting it into a total stock index fund.

I am also bottom feeding on RYE, an energy index fund. But, as the talking heads say, don't try and catch a falling knife, I am currently losing on this looking for a bottom. As oil declines further, I am still going to put cash in, as I am confident in a couple of years this will be a great investment while I kick back and collect the dividends.  I just love being paid to hold.

But, be careful. Only put very long term money into it.  I have lost a few hundred thousands of dollars in my investment history (dot com bust and 2008) and have been lucky to make it all back with a little more.  I don't know if it was worth the headache or not, but what a ride. 

HildaCorners

There are index funds and there are index funds. Everyone has to do some research.

The index funds for the casual investor are those that mimic the entire market well, have no loads or fees, and tiny management fees. Like the Vanguard S&P 500.

Other index funds are ways to make your dollar go further in speculating on an entire industry sector. For all I know there's a donuts index fund, that will tank if the economy goes up but the Paleo diet gets popular. This is not what I'm talking about.

The S&P 500 funds track 500 widely varying companies. If the economy does well, so does your fund.

To repeat myself ... if you enjoy researching investments, ignore my suggestions. If you have minimal interest in stocks, bonds and "all that junk", ignore the people who love playing the market.

BC_hunter

So I bit the bullet on hou.to @ 2.00 yesterday(hou.to is an etf and its sister etf is hod.to and acts exact opposite of hou). These prices are absolutely insane. Then today oil popped up 5% and I sold for a profit @ 2.20 and it closed at 2.25 and now its inching up after hours. Thinking I should have left it overnight and sold in the morning. Hind sight is 20/20 though. o well good gains anyhow. Tomorrow hou.to is reverse splitting 1:4 so it will be worth about 9bux tomorrow on the open. I will be waiting for oil to drop to the 46$ range again before buy in. In the mean time I am on the hunt again for another short term trade. If you haven't seen this great site for stocks/markets check it out www.finviz.com

SunDance

@BC_hunter‌
Thanks for the web site. I will check it out. I tend to be a seasonal type yearly trader, but this will still be good site for me.  Congrats on oil profits! I lost about 7% to date on an energy etf XLE, but still have cash to put in to lower my average purchase price. I am waiting for oil to go under $45. I am thinking it will be a good trade in about a year. Any thoughts on this? I know it is not the way you do it.

Also, I have been golden on TLT. I think it will pop some more, but don't know how long your short term is.  It is at an all time high, so may have made its run already. I am guessing it is still going up. Cha Ching.

Sure is looking like deflation is coming. Dangerous waters.

Persephone

I avoided this thread because, honestly, I get enough of it at home, but yes, deflation is (apparently?) a looming problem.

Random aside: I met Mr. Bogle a few times. He was old as heck, lol.

BC_hunter

@sundance I can have a look at XLE for you and give You my opinion later. I use www.freestockcharts.com to scour the stocks I am interested in. I add the MACD indicator at 5 and 20 day moving average, RSI indicator and the pivot points indicator to the overlay to make my best estimates. Not 100% accurate but its the best I can find for free charting and to me the 3 best indicators. If you check out the freestockcharts website.. And find you can't see your particular stock.. Go to the options and make sure to add your indice because not all the index's are added by default.

BC_hunter

@generalzod‌ true! ... But today I'm sad I didn't hold another night. Oil is already over 49bux a barrel again after bouncing off 46 today. I am happy with my gains.. Just sux I pulled the sell trigger a bit early.

BC_hunter

@generalzod‌ hou.to is 2x crude oil movement per day. And thanks!

Tennee

@BC_hunter‌ said:

@generalzod‌ true! ... But today I'm sad I didn't hold another night. Oil is already over 49bux a barrel again after bouncing off 46 today. I am happy with my gains.. Just sux I pulled the sell trigger a bit early.

Likely an artificial bounce driven by options.  Oil is gonna be a roller coaster for a while. The Saudis are still full bore production until they get what they want - they're driving this bus, not normal market conditions.  Hang on tight if yer getting on this ride...

BC_hunter

Good insight @Tennee‌ Gah! Oil is hitting 50bux a barrel on almost no volume compared to the days trading. I will be staring at HOD.TO and possibly ride that as oil dips again since it does exact opposite of hou.to. I can't see oil holding out @ 50bux after the report came out that they were overstocked by 5mil+ barrels and after just being @ 46bux today. HOD.. So tempting now.

Tennee

@BC_hunter‌ No way it holds based on existing supply and production.  Reuters had an interesting article regarding the supply impact on US shale production - Google it.  The trick here is discerning the true market direction from all the trading movement ripples.  The Saudis want to find the floor for several reasons, and they're gonna.  It's gonna be crazy volatile - and those with the stomach for it (and some timing luck) might make some money riding the waves. 

But who knows man - crazy ride ahead....

Persephone

Gah, I have to get SO on this board. He's signed up but I can't get him to read regularly. This thread should do the trick.

BC_hunter

@Tennee‌ glad you were right. There was no volume to hold it up there. I grabbed a position at market open today in HOD.TO in at 13.17 gunna ride oil down til it looses some steam. Nice to see gas here in BC canada between 1.00 a litre and 90cents (depending were you are). Last summer gas was 1.40 a litre. Crazy.

Tennee

@BC_hunter‌. Yep. I found this an interesting read: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/50-is-the-new-ceiling-for-oil-prices-2015-01-14 Obviously a speculative piece, but on - point analysis IMO. Of course, who really knows. BTW: You know how much I have tied in commodities right now? Not.one.red.cent.

BC_hunter

Was red the key word there?... Maybe a few green ones?

BC_hunter

Out of HOD.to @ 14.00 .. Looking to buy back in on a pop if HOD goes down to 13.60. Sorry.. Play by play here. You guys don't mind do you?

SunDance

@BC_hunter‌
I don't mind, I consider it part of a MAP, make more $ and managing your money effectively. As Captains, we need to make sure we have enough money to fund our ship to places where no blue pill husband has gone before!

And, I am killing it with TLT. Wahoo!

This oil thing is very weird. I will be following it. It could be a huge opportunity, or a disaster in the making.  Either way, I am fascinated with this slow motion global trainwreck.  Maybe time to trade my motorcycle in for a RV.

Tennee

How'd you do today? General is fine, no need for specifics. ..