Stocks! anyone play with them?

BC_hunter

I did good.. For a once in... Then out move. In HOD.TO at 13.17 and out at 14. Made a few hundred and cried when it went to 14.38 and closed at 14.32 and now oils falling again after hours.. I hope there is an uptick tomorrow during market open.. And or I hope it goes up during after hours and opens higher so I can buy back in for another slide. Seems there is still plenty of downward pressure though.. Would love to see a short panic cover haha.

BC_hunter

Undecided today.... Should have bought HOU.TO but missed the boat. Looking for an entry point in HOD.

Monkeys_Uncle

One thing I never hear discussed in relation to oil is this:   These shale plays that are responsible for the dramatic increase in US production have wells that are prolific but also notoriously short-lived.   My family has a good amount of mineral rights in some of the sweetest shale plays in the US, and a majority of those wells lose 80-90% of production after two years.   The big shale producers have been bringing rigs online at a madman's pace for the last 5 years partially because they have to stay ahead of their aging wells.

With so many rigs being stacked all over the nation, one effect we will see that never gets discussed is that in a few years there will be *massive* decrease in US production.   I don't know how much oil you have to take off the market to bump prices up, but if we were producing enough to bring them down, then it stands to reason this could have a major effect. 

I don't play stocks anymore because I only ever seem to lose money doing it... but I can see a major positive correction happening with oil prices in a couple of years.

Tennee

@Monkeys_Uncle‌ The trick is advancing technology - which is rapidly getting there - so that the existing wells can get deeper into the reserves.  We're sitting on approximately 3 Trillion barrels - in all of human history, its estimated we've used about 1 T to date - in shale reserves.   Shell, some others are doing some really interesting work in terms of advanced extraction techniques that will hopefully make US wells much more effective. 

Some of the smaller players are hobbled by their own limited ability to get deep and/or they're too easily impacted by price fluctuations, so they get idled.   Which is exactly what the Saudis are trying to do right now.  I really think its too late - the artificially high price for so long enabled US and Canadian production capabilities to advance and there's likely no turning it off.   I really do think the game has changed, the question is, how much? 

Oh, and just wait until Brazil, which is sitting on huge reserves of both oil and natural gas, gets production and exports up to full steam as well. 

Monkeys_Uncle

I sure hope you're right.  The last time OPEC did this it shut US exploration down for 20 years.  The shale extraction technology has to get more advanced and cheaper to do at the same time... that can be tricky.   The fracking/horizontal drilling they are dong around here is in the 10k-15k foot zone, and I keep hearing they can make it profitable down to $42/barrel, but not any cheaper.   And even at current profitable prices, they are pulling down rigs and laying off workers left and right.   

Tiger

Don't underestimate the effects of advancing technology in alternative fuels.  Solar is approach grid parity now and getting rapidly cheaper.  Something like a 10-12% annual cost reduction.  We are approaching the point where solar becomes a viable alternative. When the economics make it cheaper to install solar panels on your house than pay for grid power we could see a rapid realignment of the entire energy sector.

It may well be that another 4-5 years of out sized oil production from the US is enough. 

BC_hunter

Good day! Bought in HOD.TO @ 13.00 and sold it at 13.40 as oil dipped just before the 2nd leg up. HOD closed @ 12.87 (HOD.TO goes up when oil goes down and HOU.TO goes up when oil goes up). In... Out... Bit of profit... Done for the day. There was news that non-opec would slow production and cut jobs.. And that moved oil up today.. Monday gas will be more expensive.. Or even this weekend.